4月29日，MNI-NEWS（國(guó)際市場(chǎng)新聞社）采訪多位國(guó)內(nèi)行業(yè)研究員，并發(fā)表文章：《China To Restrict, Not End, Support For LGFVs》（“中國(guó)政府將對(duì)地方融資平臺(tái)從嚴(yán)支持”全文附在文末）。
其中，北京明樹數(shù)據(jù)科技有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“明樹數(shù)據(jù)”）高級(jí)研究員楊曉懌，接受采訪并指出：“隨著金融監(jiān)管部門嚴(yán)格控制債券發(fā)行，并對(duì)融資租賃等非標(biāo)融資渠道加強(qiáng)監(jiān)管，城投平臺(tái)的現(xiàn)金流出現(xiàn)明顯壓力。”“不過在公開市場(chǎng)發(fā)生債券違約的可能性不大，尤其是經(jīng)發(fā)改委審批，為公共福利項(xiàng)目融資發(fā)行的企業(yè)債。”她補(bǔ)充道。同時(shí)，此報(bào)道也在彭博新聞社海外平臺(tái)發(fā)布。
MNI-Market News是一家專注于國(guó)際資本市場(chǎng)的金融新聞機(jī)構(gòu)。它是為全球外匯和固定收益市場(chǎng)提供實(shí)時(shí)新聞和分析的提供商。MNI由經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家羅伯特·瓊斯（Robert Jones）于1983年創(chuàng)立，旨在向其第一家國(guó)際貨幣市場(chǎng)服務(wù)公司（MMS（Money Market Services）International）提供可靠的消息。建立三十多年以來，MNI在美洲、亞洲和歐洲有12個(gè)辦事處，新聞工作者團(tuán)隊(duì)的素質(zhì)和經(jīng)驗(yàn)使其在行業(yè)新聞機(jī)構(gòu)中脫穎而出。
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這并不是明樹數(shù)據(jù)團(tuán)隊(duì)第一次接受MNI采訪，今年3月22日，MNI采訪高級(jí)研究員楊曉懌并發(fā)表相關(guān)報(bào)道：《MNI Exclusive: China to increase refinanced bonds, debt swaps》（中國(guó)將增加對(duì)再融資債券和置換債券的支持力度）。
年初以來，明樹數(shù)據(jù)團(tuán)隊(duì)多次現(xiàn)身國(guó)外行業(yè)主流媒體。明樹數(shù)據(jù)CEO肖光睿在2月接受Inframation采訪，在報(bào)道中介紹了明樹團(tuán)隊(duì)編寫的《2020 中國(guó)PPP市場(chǎng)年報(bào)》。
Inframation集團(tuán)成立于2002年，旨在讓基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資領(lǐng)域工作者了解即將上市的交易和項(xiàng)目采購(gòu)動(dòng)態(tài)，是全球基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施領(lǐng)域成功的新聞媒體平臺(tái)之一。
官網(wǎng)：https://www.inframationgroup.com/
全文（中英）
China To Restrict, Not End, Support For LGFVs
中國(guó)政府將對(duì)地方融資平臺(tái)從嚴(yán)支持
China will continue to help local government financing vehicles through short-term liquidity crunches despite an official statement seemingly withdrawing implicit guarantees for their debt as any dent in the bonds' safety record could have major ramifications for the regional economy, policy advisors told MNI.
據(jù)政策顧問向MNI表示，政府將繼續(xù)幫助地方融資平臺(tái)度過短期流動(dòng)性緊缺的難關(guān)。盡管近期官方文件意在逐步打破剛性兌付，但一旦城投公募債券違約，將對(duì)地方經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展帶來巨大影響。
The State Council's recent document urging LGFVs to "implement bankruptcy proceedings or liquidation in accordance with the law if they lose their ability to pay" has raised concerns that Beijing's growing tolerance for defaults by state-owned enterprises is starting to extend to these funding platforms as it cracks down on leverage, including implicit debt.
國(guó)務(wù)院近期發(fā)布了《關(guān)于進(jìn)一步深化預(yù)算管理制度改革的意見》，其中提到“對(duì)失去清償能力的地方融資平臺(tái)公司要依法實(shí)施破產(chǎn)重整或清算”。這份文件引發(fā)了市場(chǎng)關(guān)注，在中央多次提及降低政府杠桿率、化解隱形債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的背景下，市場(chǎng)人士擔(dān)心中央政府對(duì)國(guó)有企業(yè)債務(wù)違約的容忍度有所提升，且將開始延伸至融資平臺(tái)。
However, advisors believe LGFVs will continue to receive short-term support in indirect ways from regional governments. A major default in their bonds, which have thus far had occasional repayment problems and rank next only to those of the local authority in the domestic credit hierarchy, will shake faith in the financing system, they said.
然而，顧問們認(rèn)為，短期內(nèi)，融資平臺(tái)仍將繼續(xù)得到地方政府的間接支持，考慮到平臺(tái)于地方信用金字塔的排位僅次于地方政府，其債務(wù)違約將動(dòng)搖市場(chǎng)對(duì)區(qū)域金融系統(tǒng)的信心。截至目前，城投債不時(shí)出現(xiàn)技術(shù)性違約，但并未發(fā)生實(shí)質(zhì)性違約。
Local governments "may still help LGFVs through asset injections to improve their balance sheet, or more traditionally by offering subsidies and coordinating negotiations with creditors to extend debt repayments as through installments," said Zhang Yiqun, the director of a fiscal studies institute affiliated with Jilin province's finance department.
吉林省財(cái)政科學(xué)研究所所長(zhǎng)張依群表示，“地方政府或繼續(xù)為融資平臺(tái)提供幫助，可能通過向平臺(tái)注入資產(chǎn)以改善其資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，而更傳統(tǒng)的做法是提供補(bǔ)貼；協(xié)調(diào)平臺(tái)與債權(quán)人進(jìn)行談判，尋求以分期的方式延期償還債務(wù)。”
DEFAULTS UNLIKELY
違約可能性不大
Besides funding many infrastructure projects, LGFVs have also taken on low or even non-profit ventures on behalf of the government and their debt has ballooned while fiscal revenues are shrinking.
除了為當(dāng)?shù)鼗?xiàng)目提供融資以外，平臺(tái)還為地方政府承擔(dān)了一些低收益甚至非盈利的公益性項(xiàng)目。近年來平臺(tái)的負(fù)債規(guī)模逐步攀升，而地方財(cái)政收入?yún)s呈現(xiàn)萎縮之勢(shì)。
The Yunnan provincial government recently agreed to help Yunnan Investment Group find a buyer for its stake in a subsidiary as the LGFV faced a liquidity crunch and struggled to repay debt.
近來，云南省城投平臺(tái)云投集團(tuán)面臨短期流動(dòng)性壓力，償債困難。為此云南省國(guó)資委將幫助云投集團(tuán)尋找買家，收購(gòu)其下屬企業(yè)的股權(quán)。
More highly rated prefecture-level LGFVs are expected to face such problems. "There is obvious pressure on their cash flow as the financial regulator has strict controls on debt issuance as well as on other non-standard means such as financial leasing." said Yang Xiaoyi, researcher at BRI Data, an investment advisory firm to local governments. Still, defaults in the public debt market are unlikely, especially with issues approved by the National Development and Reform Commission to fund public welfare projects, said Yang.
一些高評(píng)級(jí)的地級(jí)市大平臺(tái)可能也將面臨類似的流動(dòng)性問題。明樹數(shù)據(jù)研究員楊曉懌表示，“隨著金融監(jiān)管部門嚴(yán)格控制債券發(fā)行，并對(duì)融資租賃等非標(biāo)融資渠道加強(qiáng)監(jiān)管，城投平臺(tái)的現(xiàn)金流出現(xiàn)明顯壓力。不過在公開市場(chǎng)發(fā)生債券違約的可能性不大，尤其是經(jīng)發(fā)改委審批，為公共福利項(xiàng)目融資發(fā)行的企業(yè)債。”
The total interest-bearing debt of LGFVs was about CNY49 trillion by end-2020, accounting for 48% of GDP, according to the National Institution for Finance & Development. Excluding debt raised for their own commercial activities such as real estate development, local government implicit debt generated by LGFVs accounted for about 30% of GDP, MNI recently reported. Some CNY2.7 trillion of LGFV debt matures this year, according to Yang.
據(jù)國(guó)家金融與發(fā)展實(shí)驗(yàn)室提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2020年末，融資平臺(tái)的全部有息債務(wù)規(guī)模約為49萬億元，占GDP的48%。MNI在近期報(bào)道中指出，剔除其為房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)等商業(yè)行為所舉借的債務(wù)，融資平臺(tái)所實(shí)際形成的地方政府隱性債務(wù)約占GDP的30%左右。楊曉懌表示，今年將有約2.7萬億元的城投債到期。
RESPONSIBILITY
償債責(zé)任
Repayment issues are clouded by the difficulty in pinpointing responsibility, advisors said. While local governments take on debt related to projects without any revenue, they tend to exclude that generated by the LGFV's operations, said a researcher with a government-backed think tank who asked for anonymity.
顧問們表示，償還責(zé)任難以厘清也是化解債務(wù)過程中的一大困擾。一位要求匿名的政府智庫研究人員表示，地方已將一些完全沒有收益的公益性項(xiàng)目所產(chǎn)生的負(fù)債轉(zhuǎn)化為政府債務(wù)，同時(shí)與融資平臺(tái)在其商業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)中產(chǎn)生的負(fù)債做切割。
Zhang said LGFVs are set to consolidate through mergers. Currently, each of the 2,800 or so counties nationwide has three LGFVs on average. In some developed provinces, infrastructure requirements are minimal and cannot support that many LGFVs, Yang said, suggesting that contrary to general perception, associated risks may be higher in developed provinces such as Jiangsu. But the government may continue to support LGFVs in some less-developed areas, said Yang.
張依群表示，各地融資平臺(tái)整合升級(jí)是大勢(shì)所趨。目前，全國(guó)2800多個(gè)縣，平均每個(gè)縣就有3家融資平臺(tái)。楊曉懌稱，在一些經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)省份，基建需求已相對(duì)飽和，難以支持?jǐn)?shù)量繁多的融資平臺(tái)繼續(xù)存續(xù)。和普遍看法相悖，楊曉懌認(rèn)為像江蘇這樣的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)省份或更易看到城投風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的暴露，而在一些欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)，地方政府將繼續(xù)支持融資平臺(tái)以滿足當(dāng)?shù)鼗ㄍ顿Y的需求。
Another source at a government-backed think tank suggested LGFVs identify and concentrate on high-quality assets and let shell platforms go bankrupt to minimise bond market shocks.
另一位政府智庫的消息人士建議，融資平臺(tái)可進(jìn)行資產(chǎn)剝離，集中優(yōu)質(zhì)資產(chǎn)，讓空殼平臺(tái)破產(chǎn)，把對(duì)債券市場(chǎng)的沖擊降至最低。
